2016 bellwether counties

Hillsborough made up more than half that margin Obama won the county by 36,000 votes. PHOTO ILLUSTRATION BY EMILY SCHERER / GETTY IMAGES. If you'd like to assist or contribute in some way, learn how. Ultimately, of course, Trumps strong performance in these counties didnt matter because of Bidens gains in the more highly educated suburbs of Milwaukee, Grand Rapids and Philadelphia. Republicans are bullish that the suburban county will stay in their column this time, in part because of frustration with Washington. Virginia (13 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Dont simply gloss over this. "People are more likely to identify with a party than we've seen before," says Harrison Kreisberg of BlueLabs Analytics, a polling firm that works with progressive and Democratic interests. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 54%-45% - 2008: Obama 57%-41%. I would love to see Clinton or Kaine hold a truckstop rally and appeal to those guys., Latest voter registration totals: 146,952No party registration. Multiple factors, including higher turnout and population growth, contributed to the fact that both Biden and Trump totaledmore votes than Obama. And like so many electoral trends, demographics play a major role in explaining why these once-bellwether counties finally missed the mark in 2020. If Clinton's winning there, it means she's hitting marks with young voters. It far surpasses any statistical explanation, because at the end of the day we are dealing with real people, with real personalities, concerns and aspirations, which happen to align perfectly with the whole American population. Biden-voting counties equal 70% of America's economy. Almost a quarter of Obama's votes in 2012 came out of Wayne County (Detroit), which is 41 percent black. And as was true in 2016, those counties voted substantially to the right of the nation. Will they vote for the winner in 2016? Here are the counties that consistently voted more than 50% for the winning party since the 2000 election: To make things a little more interesting we will relax the constraints a little to include modern bellwether counties, that is, counties that have voted for the winning candidate since 1992. Latest voter registration totals: 618,420 No party registration. We already claimed that bellwether counties are a lot more than statistical curiosities, but lets assume for the time being that normal rules of probability apply. Combined, they had more than twice the votes of Denver proper and 30 percent of all the votes statewide. But county wins don't correlate with the popular vote, in part due to tremendousvariancein population size and density by county. Outstanding. He would have to really drive up big margins in the less populous counties in the mountainous Western part of the state, as well as Chesterfield (south of Richmond) and Virginia Beach. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 57%-41% - 2008: McCain 55%-44%. Thank you for supporting our journalism. The fourth-largest county in the state, its home to the Green Bay Packers, which are a huge economic engine. Suggest an improvement, report an issue, Trumps local ties notwithstanding, Clinton is likely to run up her numbers here in the northernmost part of the South Florida region. (The highest value being again 66.1%). But its not just demographic trends driving the loss of bellwether status. Seven counties, including Vigo, have got it right in the past dozen elections. After 8 elections, the number of counties left standing defy the odds, and it is this fact that makes them bellwether counties. Bellwether counties are important, and their significance should not be downplayed. Learn about the anomalies, strange events, and eyewitness accounts surrounding the 2020 election. 1 County 61947 People 2012 Predicting since One county. Trump County, USA - POLITICO Magazine For the mathematically-minded: the table below shows that county outcomes do loosely follow a random outcome, up until a point. Other counties to watch: Clinton has to drive up the margins in counties along the shores of Lake Erie, from Lucas (Toledo) to most notably Cuyahoga (Cleveland). It's another one of those white, college-educated areas that could prove key to this election. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). It went in a big way for Trump in the primary, but Obama won it, and the margin was similar to his statewide spread. The more people can work out and see for themselves that the data clearly indicates a different outcome, the better. (You can make up your own mind on what the trends mean.). ), Fact check: Biden won the most total votes and the fewest total counties of any president-elect. It has a slightly higher Hispanic population than Jefferson County 19 percent, according to the Census which makes it an uphill challenge for Donald Trump. Bonus points if you also keep track of the trends from 2016 to 2020. It is the only county to go twice for Bush and twice for Obama. They're just facts about the vote. 'Forest defenders' begin week of action to block Atlanta police training center, Frogxit: Harry and Meghan get what they asked for, More Iranian schoolgirls fall ill, protests erupt, Russell Brand was challenged to give examples of MSNBC pushing misinformation (that was a BAD idea), Secretary of the Army Guarantees a Lot of Young Soldiers Will Die but Has the Right Thoughts and Feelings, California - Do Not Sell My Personal Information. That includes10elections, includingObama in 2008 and Trump in 2016. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. But since it's gotten so much attention this cycle with the possibility that independent Evan McMullin siphons off votes from Trump, we kept it in here. Were doing a lot of adult retraining, he said. From 1980 to 2016, 19 counties voted for the winner of the presidential election every single time. So those suburban whites are key here and might tell a story not just about who wins the state, but who wins nationally. It's true that both Obama in 2008 and Trump in 2020 won in Florida, Ohio and Iowa. These bellwether counties mirror close NC race for president Valencia County is home to a string of towns along the banks of the Rio Grande river in an otherwise largely arid stretch of desert south of Albuquerque. Statewide results: 2012: Obama 52%-46% - 2008: Obama 54%-44%. Clinton has to drive up the score in Philadelphia with its significant share of black voters. Until this year. Find the answer by searching politico.com/2020-election/results. Other swing counties to watch: Monroe and Calhoun. In 2004 Kerry lost it by about 5,000 votes. The exurban county has seen a surge in minority voters in fact, non-Hispanic whites only constitute 62 percent of the vote, and thats made the area more competitive. There are 391 such counties. What results did you discover? Stanislaus County, California (county seat Modesto) - one miss since 1972 (in 2016). Outstanding. Bellwether 2016 In 132 years, no president has received more votes in his run for reelection and lost. 10. This was important for candidates since the presidential candidate's campaign would normally foot the bill. The Biden campaign has run ads in the Toledo broadcast market, which conveniently covers part of Michigan, too. In politics, the term often applies in a metaphorical sense to characterize a geographic region where political tendencies match in microcosm those of a wider area, such that the result of an election in the former region might predict the eventual result in the latter. "This process allows for the identification and correction of any mistakes or errors.". If it is not demographically representative counties or politically competitive counties which are the bellwethers, why then do we find bellwethers? Latest voter registration totals:Democrats: 316,586Republicans: 258,725No Party Affiliation: 206,457Others: 22,695. 2023 ABC News Internet Ventures. Allegheny (Pittsburgh) is also key for Democrats. It went for Romney in 2012 (when he won it), but Obama in 2008 (when the Democrat did). Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. There are more than 3,000 counties in the United States, but in presidential elections they are not all created equal. Where did all the bellwether counties go? - HotAir The county narrowly voted for Bush in 2000 but has gone Democratic in the three presidential elections since then, though never by more than 52 percent. Key Counties: The race here is not binary, so watching the margins in the biggest counties will be important. (Biden, for example, won over 70%of the vote in Los Angeles County. "Biden did well in virtually all of the most populous counties in the U.S., which, along with a larger electorate explains why he defeated Donald Trump by over 7 million votes, despite carrying many fewer counties," Smith wrote. Experts say that while traditional bellwether counties are whiter and less educated than the national average, there's no one element that unites them as political oracles. Here are the top 50 counties by Democrat voting percentage in 2008: How many of these counties swung back to the Democrat party in 2020? "There are more and more places in this country that are consistently red or blue, so there are fewer and fewer counties that swing back and forth from election to election," he said. Until this year. That might mean needing to factor that in by a couple points. Weeks after Election Day, there have still been no discoveriesof widespread voter fraud. ET. This fact check is available at IFCNs 2020 US Elections FactChat #Chatbot on WhatsApp. North Carolina (15 electoral votes) - Toss-up Bellwether: Watauga In the western mountains on the border with Tennessee, it's home to Boone, which includes Appalachian State. Have you looked at the results of these counties? His win in 2012 was by a smaller margin in Forsyth County than in 2008, as the state flipped back to Mitt Romney. Lake County is a perpetual nail-biter. How Does The Electoral College Work And Is It Fair? Racine County, which features a significant Hispanic and African American population, is the only competitive county bordering Milwaukee Ozaukee, Waukesha and Washington counties are reliably Republican. a suburban Philadelphia county that went for Hillary Clinton in 2016 with 52.6% of the vote, and that . What science tells us about the afterlife. Trump is making a hard play here; His first visit to Iowa after accepting the nomination at the Republican National Convention was in Scott County. Click here, for more. So the question is, how many of them switched back to the Democrat party in 2020? From 1980 through 2016, there were 19 counties that consistently voted for the eventual president. Michigan (16 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. Republican county chairman Michael Barnett said hed celebrate if Trump could do better than Romneys 41 percent total here in 2012. [Even Though Biden Won, Republicans Enjoyed The Largest Electoral College Edge In 70 Years. In 2020, a single. We further relaxed the constraint by introducing the switch county. Again, youll appreciate the results when you dig some of them up yourself. Follow us on Telegram to be notified when we release the remaining articles. Considering how many counties there are in the USA (we h. Texas likely isn't going Democratic, so we aren't including this in one of our 13 counties since it's less likely to decide the outcome of the presidential election. In Westmoreland County, Virginia - a small, rural community south of Washington DC that's failed to be a bellwether only twice since 1928, and is home to twice the number of African Americans than the national average - he beat Mr Biden by 16 points. One of the highest income counties in the nation and a longtime GOP Midwestern stronghold, in recent years the suburban behemoth has begun trending toward Democrats -- not even Mitt Romney, who grew up here, could win it. our Gitlab account where you can When is Eurovision and how do you get tickets? In total, Trump won 18 of the 19 former bellwether counties, winning the average such county by 13.7 points in 2020. Kyrsten Sinema's Odds Of Reelection Don't Look Great. Split-Ticket Voters Helped Biden, Republicans in Nebraska, Maine, Your California Privacy Rights/Privacy Policy. (i.e. Compiled by Si Williams, non-US resident, and other contributors. The best bellwether counties will consistently vote more than 50% for the winning party. PDF An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections, 1980-2016 used to vote more like the country as a whole, huge gains with white voters without a college degree, just 303 counties were decided by single-digit margins in 2016, How The Federal Reserve Is The Shadow Branch Of The Government, Why Original Predictions About The War In Ukraine Were So Off. Of their nineteen bellwethers, only Essex County, Vermont can be considered as a political competitive county. The Most Important Question About the 2020 Election Copyright 2023 HotAir.com/Salem Media. In fact, they became even more Republican the average bellwether county from 1980 to 2016 voted 18.2 points to the right of the nation. The Art Of The Vote: Who Designs The Ballots We Cast. Team up with others in your region, and help out by More: Fact check: What's true and what's false about the 2020 election. Other counties to watch: Counties where Clinton has to drive up the score include Bexar (San Antonio), Hidalgo (McAllen) and Travis (Austin). The following county is the only county to have voted for the winner of the presidential election in every election starting in 1980: The following 44 counties have deviated from the winner of the presidential election in one election since 1980 (no counties deviated from the winner in 1980, 1984, or 1996):[3][4]. That report was issued on Nov. 12. We sorted the counties from highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (in the 2008 election). Other counties to watch: Clark County (Las Vegas, Henderson), Democrats have to drive up big margins in Las Vegas, something they have lots of experience doing. Statewide results: 2012: Romney 51%-49% - 2008: Obama 50%-49%. Marcela Stewart speaks to a voter at an event to encourage minority voter turnout n Cutler Bay, Fla., on Sunday. It will keep them entertained for hours, and you can tell them it is for a good cause. It's whiter and less Hispanic than the rest of the state, but it has a higher share of residents with college degrees. She says that previously, "when there was a presidential election, people are watching, paying attention, and as soon as the president is elected, they forget [about politics] until it's election time again". For a county to be considered a bellwether it would have to vote for the winning party at each of the following elections: That is 4 switches in 8 election cycles! Statewide results: 2012: Obama 53%-46% - 2008: Obama 56%-42%. Oct. 28, 2021, 11:05 AM PDT. The second-most populous county in the state, northern Nevadas Washoe County is home to Reno. The users have not responded to requests from USA TODAY for comment. running an event, collecting and distributing information, Canvassing: Alarming Results in Multiple States, Identify Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, The Curious Case of the 2020 Voting Rate Blowouts, How to Predict Election Results Using Registration Data, The Counties Where Votes and Party Registrations Don't Align, Investigating the Large Democrat Vote Increases, USEIPs Election Fraud Data Analytics Guide, 2000 Mules: Video Evidence of Ballot Trafficking, Voting Machines Lacking EAC Accreditation, List of Legislators Supporting Election Audits, Forensic Analysis of Mesa County Machine Images, A Vote Trafficking Parable, by David K. Clements, Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis, View the County & Local Organizing Playbook, Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel, Bellwether counties are not just statistical curiosities, The odds of 21 (out of 22) of these counties getting it wrong is, We have identified and analyzed the best of the best bellwether counties at predicting an election outcome, and examined their trends in 2020. Since 1960, Democrats have won Rockingham County only three times. Mr Biden "never thought he was going to bring Ohio; he didn't put the effort in," says Democrat John Brikmanis from Oak Harbor in Ottawa County, and who ran unsuccessfully for the position of county clerk last month. John King has identified as key in the 2016 election. It went with the exact margin for Romney in 2012 statewide and McCain statewide in 2008. Latest voter registration totals: 937,155 No party registration. An Inquiry of Bellwether Counties in US Presidential Elections - SSRN The trick, for Trump, is to hold down her winning percentage here in a county that has nearly a quarter of a million registered Republicans. Here are the top 30 sorted by the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote in 2008, thats the DPV 08 column: Find out at politico.com/2020-election/results. Green Bays Brown County voted for George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004, then Barack Obama in 2008, then flipped to Mitt Romney in 2012. Vigo County, Indiana, is a serious bellwether county. But Northampton went closely with the statewide margin in 2012. Find Stephen on Twitter and Instagram, The Americans who almost always predict the president, China looks at reforms to deepen Xi's control, Historic ocean treaty agreed after decade of talks, Inside the enclave surrounded by pro-Russia forces, 'The nurses wanted me to feel guilty about my abortion, From Afghan TV fame to a US factory floor. Clinton has to hit that margin in this county where more than half a million people voted. This article is part of a series on Identifying Electoral Fraud Using Trend Analysis. In other words, only 54 percent of bellwether counties from 1980 to 2012 kept their status in 2016. [How Much Did COVID-19 Affect The 2020 Election?]. who in 2016 won Caswell and other rural counties in North Carolina by tapping those feelings of abandonment. Here are the top 25 counties which voted over 60% for the Democrat party in 2008, and then voted Republican in 2016: There is no doubt these 25 counties heavily favor the Democrat party. A majority of voters here had backed the eventual winner of presidential elections every time since 1964. It is whiter than the rest of the state but has a slightly higher level of college degrees, although still it's just 28 percent. Trump appears likely to lose many moderate Republicans here but his message is also expected to appeal to white working class voters in Lower Bucks County, closer to the city. Most bellwether counties were slightly Democratic-leaning in 2008 and Republican leaning in 2012. Clinton needs to be closer to Obama's 57 percent in 2008 than his 55 percent in 2012. Ultimately, they are simply 19 counties and this time, 18 of them voted for the candidate who lost the election. This was George W. Bush territory in 2000 and 2004, but Obama brought it back into the Democratic fold in his two elections. Lets introduce a new concept: the quality of prediction. David Hopkins, a political scientist at Boston College, toldthe Wall Street Journal that the failure of typical bellwether counties reflects"the overall trend that we are seeing toward greater geographic polarization.". Re-doing the analysis we obtain 35 modern bellwether counties after the 2016 election. Read about our approach to external linking. The popular vote is not enough to win apresidential election; thatonly occurs with awin in the Electoral College. How many of these 150 switch counties voted Democrat in 2020? When sorted from the highest to lowest Democrat percentage vote (at the 2008 election), we can see that there is 1 county that has a percentage Democrat vote greater than 60% at the 2008 election. Share your comments below or join the related discussion on Gitlab. Situated on the southern shore of Lake Erie in Ohio, Ottawa County is one of America's most accurate bellwether counties - a region where voters correctly pick the president, election after election for decades at a time. Somehow we jumped from 22 to 1 county in one election cycle and we are supposed to believe that is normal? List of election bellwether counties in the United States Affluent, well-educated Wake County, home to Raleigh and part of the Research Triangle, was once Republican territory. While Clinton has family ties to the coal-producing region her father was born in neighboring Scranton mid-July polling from a GOP pollster suggests Trump is winning big here. Winnebago County: A large bellwether county in east-central Wisconsin, Mr. Trump won it in 2016, but in 2018 Democrats running for governor and the Senate performed much better. The magnitude of the gap (or difference) is an indicator of the strength of the change in sentiment. Bellwether counties are mostly a matter of chance and are now - USAPP Suburban Denvers Arapahoe and Jefferson counties have moved in tandem for the past four elections. They were particularly representative in 2012, when the average 1980-to-2016 bellwether county was just 0.8 points more Democratic than the nation. We relaxed the constraint by introducing the concept of a swing county, i.e. BBC Reality Check breaks down the bill for the world's most expensive election, Arriving at a voting station to observe as a poll challenger on 4 November last, she sat down next to two people she didn't know. The 10 Bellwether Counties That Show How Trump Is in Serious Trouble Ottawa County in Ohio has been on target every four years since 1964, and Bexar County in . They are: Notice RANSOM, SARGENT, and MARSHALL in particular. That Trump did so well in the remaining 19 bellwether counties in 2020 should come as no surprise, then. Based on our research, the claim that these five statistics about Obama, Trump and Biden appear to discredit election results is MISSING CONTEXT. In 2018, Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, carried it by 11 points. The website FiveThirtyEight pointed out in 2021 that, in the 2016 election Trump won, opponent Hillary Clinton carried 16 of the 35 counties that had gone for the winner in every election from. The percentage of people with college degrees here is two-thirds higher than the rest of the state. If Clinton is going to win Utah, she will need to squeeze out as many Democrats as is possible in Salt Lake, and maybe win young people in those college towns, including Logan in Cache County (Utah State). More than one-in-four votes cast for Obama and Romney in 2012 came from Hillsborough. However, its bellwether status is by no means guaranteed in future elections. The odds of 21 counties out of 22 missing the mark is extremely remote! Watch the Philadelphia suburbs, and that means white women. It won't be enough for Trump; he also needs to likely win by more than Romney did in Brown (Green Bay) and drive up turn out in Waukesha, one of the reddest and most populous counties in the state. The strongest bellwether counties are those that back the winning candidate in all elections. "End of day, the solution is complicated but the problem is very simple," wrote a user who shared the meme on Instagram. Mike Pence, could marshal his supporters to cross the border and provide support. Jeff. As long as a candidate wins enough electoral votes from other states, there is noreason it's impossible to win an election while losing Florida, Ohio, or Iowa. 5. There are 22 counties in the US that managed to vote for the winning party in every single election from 1988 to 2016. It very closely mirrors the rest of the state demographically (with a slightly higher Asian population), but it is far more educated. America's most accurate bellwether counties, regions that have a reputation for accurately picking the president, got the presidential election completely wrong. Co., as its sometimes referred to, has gone more closely for the statewide winner than any other big county. Wood County is a decent bellwether of the state: Mr. Trump carried it by eight points in 2016, matching his statewide margin. Once-reliably Republican -- and essential to Republicans to help overcome the deficit they face in Las Vegas Clark County -- Washoe voted twice for Bush and then twice for Obama. The question is just how big of a margin she can run up here -- where roughly two-thirds of the states presidential votes were cast in 2012 -- to offset Trumps victories across much of the rest of the state. In other words, how strongly do they swing to the winning party? Instead, you can Find the latest updates on our Telegram channel which has more recent updates. Other counties to watch: Also watch Luzerne (Wilkes-Barre). 12. Pennsylvania (20 electoral votes) - Lean Democratic. According to an analysis of bellwether states and counties by Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections, "Vigo County, Indiana is the most prominent bellwether of presidential. The most impressive of those was Valencia County, New Mexico, which voted for the victor in every presidential election from 1952 to 2016. Obama won it narrowly that year, by fewer than 3,000 votes. In 2012, it had nearly half a million more voters in it than every other county in the state combined.

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